There are some pro-UFO ETH (extraterrestrial hypothesis) believers who state that aliens have only recently arrived on Earth in response to modern human activities, like our nuclear weapons detonations. Sceptics counter that it's unlikely in the extreme that 1) aliens could have gotten from there to here that quickly, and 2) the odds that we current humans would just happen by chance be the lucky generation, after four and a half billion years have passed Earth by in cosmic isolation, to now experience for the very first time on-site cosmic company are astronomically against. So, are we the lucky generation to be the first graced by E.T., or not?
If you were to throw a dart randomly at four and a half billion balloons, each balloon labeled with one year since Planet Earth came into existence (starting with one and ending up with number four and a half billion), what odds that the dart would hit any of those balloons that had dates that coincided with humanity's time on Planet Earth, even being generous and giving us (humanity) an existence of say two million balloon years, far less hitting the one balloon that we would call 1947 (the accepted start of the modern UFO era)? Bugger all odds against! But does that of necessity negate the UFO ETH?
Aliens Are Here Because We Are Here Scenario - Otherwise Known As The 1947 UFO Scenario:
UFOs, if alien owned and operated, can only be here on (or above) Earth, in response to the on-site presence of the modern technological human. That's actually advocated by many pro-UFO extraterrestrial hypothesis (ETH) buffs. They ask can be a coincidence that aliens have arrived here just at the same time we started playing around with dangerous toys like nuclear weapons; trespassing on their turf by going into space; and illustrating our overall stupidity by reeking environmental havoc upon ourselves.
Now the â€˜aliens are here because we are here' argument for extraterrestrial UFOs is IMHO actually the best anti-UFO ETH arguments going. Skeptics counter that for mankind to be â€˜visible' to those out there; those out there can only know about us, our â€˜visibility', via our electromagnetic (EM) signals, which propagate outwards into the cosmos at light speed. Our EM signals (optical nuclear blasts, radio/TV broadcasts, radar emissions, etc.) haven't had much time to get very far out into the cosmos, because prior to say 1900 Earth was pretty damn quiet in terms of giving off human technological EM noise. Even our atmospheric pollution, potentially detectable from way out there via spectroscopic analysis, wasn't really at highly abnormal levels prior to 1900. It's only in the 20th Century did our visibility really kick into high gear.
So, if you take 1947 as the start year of the modern UFO era â€“ their arrival date â€“ and assuming the aliens left home as soon as they detected our EM signal(s), then their home has got to be so relatively near to Earth as to be statistically unlikely in the extreme. Since E.T.'s home is certainly not within our solar system, then by elimination, that leaves the nearby stars. But only subluminal interstellar travel is possible (so proclaimed Einstein in his Special Theory of Relativity), and even interstellar velocities of say ten percent light speed are really pushing reasonable limits. Our closest stellar companions are over four light years away, so it would take E.T. over forty years to reach us from our closest stellar abode at ten percent light speed. Add to that the four light years it took our EM signal to reach them in the first place, well that's about forty-four years all up. Subtract that from 1947 â€“ well, 1903 isn't known for our high intensity radio broadcasts; radar, TV and the light from our nuclear blasts were still future technology. Our city lights weren't exactly going to be blinding their telescopes either. Therefore, according to the skeptics, E.T. didn't arrive in 1947 due to any human activity, and since obviously only human activity would attract E.T. to travel here in the first place, therefore UFOs can not be anything alien! So say the skeptics.
But the skeptic's basic assumption here is that E.T. was out of range back at home. E.T. was in another extra-solar planetary hemisphere, country or city, across the gulf of interstellar space and far away from where the terrestrial action was. Alas for the skeptics, even if the aliens arrived out of concern to post-1900's human activities (according to some UFO believers), that could mean the aliens were already here, if not on-site, then in our immediate solar system neighborhood, like having a lunar base, or even an orbiting space colony ship, say out in the asteroid belt, as base of operations. One doesn't have to postulate them being a minimum of over four light years away (the distance to our nearest stellar neighbor).
So the basic assumption here by some pro-UFO ETH believers, that aliens arrived first in 1947 because of human activity is just so anthropomorphic (human centered) as to be laughable It's an egocentric inspired, but just a coincidence, that alien UFOs are around when humans dominate Earth's environment. As we've seen, the skeptic's counter argument fares little better in the logic department.
But when taken to its logical conclusion, skeptics do provide the very answer which makes the UFO ETH nearly inevitable. Indeed, it would be utterly extraordinary in the extreme if that tiny niche of terrestrial time, say 1947 to the present, were the first and only niche of terrestrial time to host a visit by extraterrestrial intelligence(s).
Let's forget the human element â€“ as per the above argument for E.T. being here. Planet Earth has been noted and logged in a galactic database for a minimum of millions of years, more likely as not at least an order or two of magnitude greater â€“ say billions of years.
The obvious answer is that there have been previous niches within terrestrial time, intervals of time, probably lots and lots of them, when E.T. paid a visit. E.T. has had billions of years to randomly (or selectively) explore our galaxy. At ten percent light speed the galaxy can be explored, even colonized in one million years. At one percent light speed it only takes ten million years to cross the galaxy edge-to-edge. Only ten million years? You might think that's a hell of a long time, but the galaxy is ten billion years old. If there are lots of space-faring extraterrestrial civilizations, or even if there is just one, they are probably a lot closer to us than the worst case scenario of edge-to-edge, obviously, since we're not situated on the galactic edge, we're more like two-thirds the way out from the galactic centre.
Those who have pondered this issue and crunched the numbers, suggest that every ten thousand to one hundred thousand years is a rough guesstimate of intervals of time between random visits from E.T. 1947-to-date could easily and probably would fall outside that range. Maybe the last random visit was nine thousand years ago, or ninety thousand years ago. We'd still have a bit of a wait (one thousand to ten thousand years worth of wait) for the next call. But, and there's always a "but"â€¦
The1947 Scenario Gives WayTo - The Once Upon A Time Scenario:
If bona-fide UFOs are extraterrestrial visitations, then it's highly improbable that our generation would be the generation to be privy to said visitations. In all probability, such visitations should have and would have extended back into historical times, ancient times, and pre-historical times; in fact they could extend right back to when Planet Earth was just a lifeless ball of solidifying molten rock.Â They â€“ the extraterrestrials - could have taken an active role in shaping terrestrial evolution from nearly the year dot, all the while considering themselves stewards of Planet Earth.
If one accepts the idea that UFOs are extraterrestrial spaceships, and one accepts the idea that extraterrestrials have been around for quite some considerable time (â€˜ancient astronauts' anyone), then one can and should extrapolate back in our planet's history even further and postulate that they might have been around for most, if not all of our geological history. How so?
Once upon a time, nearly fourteen billion years ago, our Universe began â€“ exact how and why is not relevant to the scenario that follows.
Shortly thereafter, in cosmic terms, now some ten billion years ago, natural physical processes like gravity produced our Milky Way Galaxy (and lots of others besides, but they don't feature in this scenario).
Within our galaxy, in fairly short order, lots of super-massive first generation stars blew up as supernovae creating and spreading the heavy elements required for biology â€“ oxygen, carbon, nitrogen, etc. - through interstellar space. Those heavy elements became incorporated in second generation stars, some of which in turn became supernovae, further enriching what became third generation stars, of which our Sun (Sol) is but one of many.
By the time our own third generation star, Sol, formed with accompanying solar system and it's third rock from the star (Planet Earth), four and a half billion years ago, our Milky Way Galaxy was already five and a half billion years old, yielding more than enough time to have generated extraterrestrial life, extraterrestrial intelligence, and extraterrestrial intelligences with advanced technologies capable of subluminal interstellar space travel.
My basic premise therefore is that at least one, probably many, extraterrestrial civilizations have boldly gone and voyaged out into interstellar space even before our own star, solar system, and home planet ever existed, and that trend continues.
The time it takes to explore all our galaxy's nooks-and-crannies would be a tiny fraction of the age of our galaxy. Translated, Planet Earth would have been charted billions of years ago.
That being the case, it's logical to assume that there is at least one advanced and adventurous interstellar venturing extraterrestrial civilization currently in our here and now; probably one or more from in we include our historical past and probably hundreds extending throughout our prehistory; even more throughout the lengthy eons of our geological history, Â four and a half billion years worth - translated, no matter how you slice and dice it, we (i.e. â€“ Planet Earth) have received multi-thousands of visitations over our four and a half billion years of existence.
Based on speculative calculations by scientists interested in extraterrestrial life, ballpark numbers suggest that Sol, our solar system and Planet Earth should have received or expected, on average, a random visitation by advanced boldly going extraterrestrials every one hundred thousand years (so suggests astronomer Carl Sagan) to an even greater once in every ten thousand years (according to physicist Edward Condon).
Even varying the random frequency visitations downwards by even one or two orders of magnitude still translates into a lot of visits by an E.T. over our four and a half billion years. This not only satisfies the Fermi Paradox ("where is everybody?"),Â but all those critics that point out that our first alien visitation was unlikely in the extreme to be in 1947, the start of the modern UFO era.
It doesn't take much imagination â€“ and many have imagined it â€“ that E.T. has been flitting around Earth's neighborhood on a nearly ongoing basis since the year dot. The key point is once that initial chance discovery happened, and that could have been billions of years ago, we were noted and logged as biological real estate. We're now a colored pin in the galactic map, say green for simple biosphere; yellow for complex life, orange for intelligence and red for here be a civilization. Within one hundred thousand years of that first contact discovery (even if it were just E.T. greeting our microbial ancestors), radio communications at light speed would have informed all potentially receptive (and future receptive) extraterrestrial civilizations that here was one of those rare abodes, a planet with a biosphere, and thus one worthy of ongoing (not random) investigations â€“ to satisfy their alien scientific curiosity if nothing else.
Our own terrestrial parallels are obvious. Once we discovered Antarctica it quickly became common knowledge. We went back, again, and again, finally setting up quasi- permanent quarters despite the obvious costs to the taxpayer and hardships to those undertaking the journey, and all in the name of science. We'll go back to the Moon too one day â€“ maybe not anytime real soon, but sometime. Your great grand kids will see lunar settlements or outposts like we see in Antarcticatoday. E.T. and Earth may have had the same ongoing relationship as humans and Antarctica. We might find we have E.T. for company on the Moon like we've had E.T. as sticky-beaks hovering around Earth in their UFOs.
Now recall from our mythologies around the world from all races, all cultures, all geographical settlements the tales of the sky â€˜gods' and other deities or beings associated with various constellations and stellar addresses.Â Those same â€˜gods' (or â€˜ancient astronauts'), who often get around in aerial or fiery â€˜chariots', gave the gifts of culture and knowledge and rudimentary technologies to primitive (hunter-gatherer) mankind. They of course stick around to monitor their experiments on their subjects.
So why don't we have a clearer picture of these â€˜ancient astronauts' instead of having to try to come to terms with vague mythologies which is anything but crystal clear on that subject. That's because our oral traditions (language) has existed vastly longer than our written record. Thus, there's a long oral tradition of the ancient astronaut â€˜gods' and their relationships with humans and with each other before it all started to be written down, since language proper first came to the fore less than one hundred thousand years ago (probably less â€“ more like fifty thousand years ago with the development of full behavioural modernity) but writing can only be traced back to roughly 6000 BC. That's a lot of in-between time for a lot of the details to have been embellished or lost and lost too in the retellings over some two thousand human generations! Still, mythologies provide a lot of evidence that the extraterrestrial and the terrestrial have interacted.
Now fast-forward to 1947 and through to the present early 21st Century. The â€˜gods' or the â€˜ancient astronauts' have become the aliens or the grays or E.T., and they are going to keep close tabs on us, since they know that one day, even if thousands of years down the track, we'll boldly go too like they have boldly gone. We have our intelligence gathering agencies keeping tabs on those we need to keep tabs on; E.T. has theirs as well, keeping tabs on us.
Thus, we note that random, hence ongoing, visitations by E.T. have had absolutely nothing to do with the existence of humans and human technology, like our nuclear weapons detonations as well as our radio and radar and TV signals that are expanding throughout (to date very nearby) interstellar space that could be in theory detected by aliens at home. They didn't need to detect them at home; they were here all along and well before humans were thought of as a fun thing to create in their philosophy.